I guess it is hardly surprising, given my cultural heritage and research interests, that my first post would be dedicated to the recent conflict involving ethnic Armenians in the self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh (Nagorno Karabakh). As someone with family ties in Artsakh, mainland Armenia and in the wider diaspora spanning over several countries, the ethnic cleansing of Armenian culture from a historic homeland to ethnic Armenians hits home in a very personal capacity.

However, I wanted to take this opportunity to discuss the growing debates in the Armenian mainland and the wider diaspora surrounding the country’s military and economic alliances. Without any desire whatsoever to delve into the country’s internal politics (i.e. who is responsible for what and when), as this debate is almost always rooted in both the personal political preferences of parties, and of course their pockets, these recent events have put the spotlight on a critical juncture for Armenia: the need to reconsider relying solely on Russian military presence and aid.

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has a long history marked by tensions and displacements, but recent events are prompting a reassessment of alliances. A significant shift in allegiances is evident in Russia’s changed stance within the region after its disastrous and failing attempts to invade neighbouring Ukraine. This pivot heavily favours Azerbaijan, not only in diplomatic terms but also by supplying substantial military assistance – this is hardly surprising given its oil-rich mainland. The implications of this strategic move by Russia have left Armenia as an independent nation vulnerable, facing the disquieting reality of its former ally indirectly (and sometimes plainly) supporting its opponent.

The mass exodus of over 100,000 ethnic Armenians from the Republic of Artsakh following Azerbaijan’s military assaults paints a poignant picture of the betrayal felt by the Armenian community in the country and the diaspora. The trauma and fear stemming from this conflict underscore the urgent need for Armenia to reconsider its reliance on Russian military support.

A recent report from Human Rights Watch serves as a stark reminder of the ongoing challenges faced by displaced Armenians. The call for international oversight and the commitment to the rights of return for these individuals is crucial to ensure a fair and secure reintegration. European leaders emphasising the need for international rights monitoring echo the global concern for a just resolution; the push for an inclusive vision in the region that supports the return of displaced individuals aligns with principles of justice and fairness.

Amidst these tumultuous events, there’s a growing perspective among Armenians in the mainland and the diaspora suggesting that the country should reconsider its alliances. The recent history of Russia turning away from its former ally for geopolitical interests highlights the need for Armenia to diversify its support base and explore alternative options for military support and diplomatic partnerships.

The recent shift in the region’s geopolitical landscape more broadly, with Russia’s favouring of Azerbaijan and Turkey, emphasises the need for Armenia to reassess its foreign policy strategy. Collaboration with Western nations (specifically those in the EU), can offer a promising pathway for accumulating support in these challenging times. Armenia’s survival strategy in the face of shifting alliances is not just a matter of necessity but an opportunity for building new relationships. As the country faces potential risks of further military threat to its mainland territory, it is now at a critical intersection: who will its long-term allies be?